If Republican candidate Donald Trump gets elected, it is speculated that China’s economic growth rate could be severely impacted. Consequently, China’s ambition to rival the U.S. as the world’s superpower by 2035 will pause.
According to diplomatic sources in Beijing on the 18th, Trump was the main source of the U.S.-China trade war. Naturally, if he wins the election, he will likely continue to pursue his policies. It is evaluated that the trade war will inevitably escalate.
The most significant change would be the expensive tariffs, which would be harsh on China. Sanctions against Chinese companies such as Huawei will also intensify.
An anonymous clothing manufacturer in Beijing mentioned that Chinese export companies will struggle if Trump becomes president again. As Trump previously posed high tariffs on China during his last term, manufacturers are aware of the severe consequences.
The Chinese economic authorities have set this year’s growth target at around 5%. They are racing to make all possible efforts to achieve this goal. At the moment, the chances of such is about half. Even a 4% growth rate might be challenging for China if Trump gets elected.
Starting next year, China will have to embrace its tough journey. The problem is that China will have to navigate its economic strategies for the next four years. If this is not reflected, its growth rate might actually be cut in half.
The Chinese economy had consistently grown over 5% until about a decade ago. However, as China’s population grew exponentially, achieving the same growth has been difficult recently. If it continues to take hits from the U.S. in this situation, the outcome is predictable. The ambition to rise to G1 status may not be possible. Foreign media analyzed that Trump’s comeback could be a disaster for the Chinese economy.
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