South Korea’s Military Arsenal: What Weapons Could Be Sent to Ukraine Amid North Korean Provocations?

In a significant policy shift, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol recently suggested that the country reconsider its longstanding stance against supplying lethal aid to Ukraine in response to North Korea’s potential involvement in the conflict. During a joint press briefing with Polish President Andrzej Duda on October 24, Yoon stated that South Korea’s policy of not directly providing lethal weapons to Ukraine could be re-evaluated depending on North Korea’s military actions. This marks Yoon’s first time openly indicating the possibility of supplying offensive military aid.

Yoon’s remarks came in response to questions from Polish media about South Korea’s potential military support to Ukraine. He emphasized that North Korea’s involvement in Ukraine would not be tolerated and that South Korea would take appropriate measures to ensure national security, including providing support to Ukraine in phases based on the scale of North Korea’s deployment.

These comments came shortly after a warning from Russia. On October 23, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova cautioned South Korea against aiding Ukraine, threatening severe consequences for any actions that could be seen as a security threat. Yoon’s statement, while partly a response to Russia’s warning, also reflects growing concerns about North Korean involvement, as reports suggest that North Korean troops may be moving closer to the Ukrainian front lines.

Potential for Lethal Aid: South Korea’s Evolving Military Support Strategy

Experts suggest that South Korea may be prepared to escalate its support for Ukraine if North Korea intensifies its role in the conflict. Until now, South Korea has limited its support to indirect aid, such as providing artillery shells to the U.S., which could then be used to assist Ukraine. Earlier this year, South Korea lent 155mm artillery shells to the U.S. to help mitigate shortages caused by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, thus adhering to its policy against direct lethal aid.

However, the South Korean government has indicated it would consider supplying defensive weapons and potentially offensive systems if the North Korean-Russian alliance grows more aggressive. Military analysts believe that South Korea’s “red line” could be crossed if Russia provides North Korea with advanced technology that enhances its nuclear and missile capabilities.

Lethal Aid Options: A Range of Military Assets

South Korea’s stockpiles include several military assets that could be transferred to Ukraine in an escalation. These include Soviet-era weapons and systems, such as T-80U tanks, BMP-3 armored vehicles, Metis-M anti-tank missiles, and Igla man-portable air defense systems. Initially produced in Russia, these systems could be easily integrated into Ukraine’s forces without additional training, offering an immediate operational advantage.

In addition to these older systems, South Korea also possesses surplus air defense systems, including U.S.-made Hawk missiles and French Mistral man-portable air defense systems. Both systems have been phased out in favor of newer, more advanced models, making them available for transfer without compromising South Korea’s defense capabilities. Given the effectiveness of these systems against Russian cruise missiles and drones, their transfer could bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities.

Air-to-Ground Munitions: Precision Strike Capabilities for Ukraine

The South Korean Air Force’s stockpile of air-to-ground munitions also presents a viable option for potential aid to Ukraine. Among these are the widely used U.S.-made 500-pound MK-82 bombs and South Korea’s domestically produced Korean GPS-Guided Bombs (KGGB). These munitions, especially the MK-82, are readily available and could be quickly supplied to Ukraine. The KGGB, with a range of up to 100 kilometers, can be mounted on Ukraine’s Soviet-era aircraft without significant modifications, making it a highly versatile asset for Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia.

The KGGB’s precision and range could significantly enhance Ukraine’s ability to strike critical Russian infrastructure, including military targets and logistical hubs. For South Korea, the extensive stockpile of these munitions ensures that providing them to Ukraine would not disrupt its military readiness while also offering an effective way to support Ukraine’s defense efforts.

Challenges and Strategic Concerns: Protecting South Korea’s Defense Readiness

While the prospect of supplying Ukraine with ammunition and air defense systems is gaining traction, certain assets are unlikely to be transferred due to their critical importance to South Korea’s defense posture. These include South Korea’s K9 self-propelled howitzers, K2 Black Panther tanks, the Cheongung surface-to-air missile system, and portable anti-tank and anti-air missiles like the Hyeongung and Shingung.

These systems are integral to South Korea’s defense capabilities, particularly in a crisis on the Korean Peninsula. Transferring such high-value assets could create a critical gap in South Korea’s military readiness, and there are significant risks associated with the technology falling into the hands of Russia, which could then pass it on to North Korea. Such a scenario would pose a severe security threat to South Korea and undermine the nation’s defense posture.

Market Indicators: Poongsan’s Role in Supplying Munitions

The announcement of possible lethal aid to Ukraine has already had an impact on South Korea’s defense industry. Following Yoon’s comments, shares of Poongsan, South Korea’s primary supplier of military munitions, surged by over 10%, peaking at 15% during early trading. Poongsan plays a critical role in producing key munitions, such as 155mm artillery shells, which are in high demand due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Should South Korea decide to provide direct military aid, Poongsan would likely be at the forefront of supplying these critical munitions.

Conclusion: South Korea’s Strategic Decision on Lethal Aid

As tensions rise in Ukraine and North Korea’s involvement increases, South Korea’s government is likely to face growing pressure to expand its support for Ukraine, including potentially lethal aid. South Korea’s military aid could significantly bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities with a range of military assets available for transfer, including air defense systems, artillery shells, and precision-guided munitions. However, any decision must carefully balance South Korea’s national security interests with its commitment to supporting international efforts to counter Russian aggression.