On Tuesday, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law, citing the need to protect the Republic of Korea from the threats posed by North Korea’s communist forces and to eliminate shameless pro-North Korea anti-state forces that, according to him, threaten the freedom and happiness of the Korean people.
However, according to U.S. news magazine Newsweek, foreign experts on North Korea believe that linking the martial law declaration to North Korea’s threats is a stretch, and they assess that the likelihood of immediate action from North Korea remains low.
Stephan Haggard, a distinguished professor at the University of California, San Diego, commented on the martial law declaration, suggesting that while it is being presented as a response to the threat from North Korea’s communist forces, he has not observed any evidence of aggressive movements from North Korea. He characterized the situation as McCarthyism, pointing out that it involves labeling the opposition as an anti-state, pro-North Korean force.
Haggard added, “The likely North Korean reaction will be that the illegal clique in the South is arrogating power to itself, perhaps justifying Kim Jong Un’s recent decisions to treat the South as an enemy country; that is likely the framework for how North Korea will respond.”
Shin Gi Wook, Professor of Contemporary Korea and director of the Korea Program at Shorenstein APARC at Stanford University, stated, “I am sure North Korea will be watching the situation very closely and may issue a statement condemning the martial law. Other than that, I don’t think they will take any immediate action.”
Shin added, “Anyway, I don’t think this will last long—it will face national resistance, even within the military.”
George A. Lopez, Professor Emeritus at Notre Dame, commented, “Because this action by Yoon was unforeseen, we may not have an instant reaction from Kim Jong Un. If the martial law and emerging chaos in the South increases beyond today, expect Kim Jong Un to deny it has operatives in the South that sparked this action.”
Lopez continued, “Rather, Kim will claim martial law as evidence that Yoon is paranoid, taking his hostility to the North to this new level, and DPRK will declare its armed forces on war alert.”
Lopez said, “Russia’s President Vladimir Putin may state solidarity with DPRK as their ally faces these threats. A short-range missile test by the North is more likely within a week if martial law continues.”
Marcus Noland, Non-Resident Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, predicted, “North Korea has its hands full in Ukraine. It will crank up its overt propaganda operations and covertly encourage its operatives and fellow travelers in the South to make noise.”
Ramon Pacheco Pardo, KF-VUB Korea Chair at the Brussels School of Governance, assessed, “In my opinion, North Korea will criticize President Yoon and suggest that South Korea is unstable. But I don’t think it can cover this development in much depth given the nature of its own regime.”
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