On Wednesday morning, an Azerbaijan passenger plane crashed in Kazakhstan, and speculation is growing that Russian air defense systems may have mistakenly shot it down.
The initial theory was that a bird strike caused the incident. However, Ukrainian officials and aviation experts have suggested that Russian anti-aircraft fire was responsible.
The aircraft was traveling from Baku, Azerbaijan, to Grozny, Russia, when it mysteriously altered course and crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, western Kazakhstan.
The plane carried 67 passengers, including 37 Azerbaijanis, 16 Russians, 6 Kazakhs, and 3 Kyrgyz nationals. Among them, 29 survived.
According to the Wall Street Journal and other international media, U.K.-based aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions stated in a client advisory that based on crash footage, aircraft damage, and recent military activity, there is a high likelihood that Russian air defense systems downed the aircraft.
Andriy Kovalenko, a Ukrainian national security official, also posted on X (formerly Twitter) that parts of the aircraft and even life vests inside the cabin had holes, suggesting a Russian air defense system shot it down.
He added, “Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny, but they failed. The plane was damaged by Russian forces and was diverted to Kazakhstan instead of making an emergency landing in Grozny to save lives.”
Some experts noted that multiple holes in the plane’s tail section indicate possible missile or air defense system activity.
Footage shared online shows the aircraft descending rapidly and dangerously steeply before attempting to land in Aktau.
Experts have suggested that the zigzagging flight path and sudden, steep descent before landing indicate the pilots faced severe control difficulties.
Alexandre Avrane, founder of the aviation tracking site AeroTransport Data Bank, said the aircraft appeared to encounter several control problems.
The plane flew over Russia’s North Caucasus shortly after departure, an area that Ukrainian drone attacks have targeted in recent weeks.
On the same day, Russia’s Defense Ministry reported downing 59 Ukrainian drones overnight. Just three hours before the crash, another Ukrainian drone was intercepted near Vladikavkaz, west of Grozny.
Andrew Nicholson, CEO of Osprey Flight Solutions, said the company had issued over 200 warnings about drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the Ukraine war.
He noted that the incident powerfully reminded them of the importance of their work and expressed heartbreak over lives lost in preventable ways.
When asked about allegations that the Azerbaijan plane was targeted by Russian air defense, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told AP, “It would be wrong to make hypotheses before investigators make their verdict.”
Officials from the Kazakh and Azerbaijani governments have also refrained from commenting on the cause of the crash, stating that it is up to investigators to determine.
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