Cheong Seong Chang, director of the Center for Korean Peninsula Strategy at the Sejong Institute, has warned that a nuclear detonation over Seoul City Hall could result in the death or injury of 3.5 million people—about one-third of the city’s population. The intense heat from such an explosion would be so severe that it could vaporize human bodies, making it nearly impossible to recover any remains. Cheong shared these stark predictions in a recent interview with Yonhap News, where he also advocated for South Korea to pursue nuclear armament.
Cheong explained that North Korea’s 2017 hydrogen bomb test demonstrated an explosive yield of 100-300 kilotons (kt), which is up to 20 times more powerful than the 15kt atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. He emphasized that a 250kt hydrogen bomb detonated over Seoul would cause catastrophic devastation beyond imagination.
Presenting results from a simulation, Cheong underscored the devastating consequences of a nuclear attack. The extreme heat from a nuclear blast over Seoul would leave no trace of those within the immediate impact zone. Additionally, the shockwave, thermal radiation, and radioactive fallout would cause widespread destruction not only within Seoul but also in surrounding regions.
Cheong cautioned that such an attack could kill or severely injure one in three Seoul residents—around 3.5 million people. He stressed that even if all hospitals across South Korea were fully operational, they would be overwhelmed by the scale of the casualties. He concluded that the country’s current medical and disaster response systems would be inadequate to handle the aftermath of such a catastrophic event.
The security expert also criticized the dangerous complacency among both South Korean politicians and the public in dismissing the threat of a North Korean nuclear strike. Drawing comparisons to historical conflicts like the Imjin War, the Manchu invasions (Byeongja Horan), and the Korean War, where a lack of preparation led to devastating consequences, Cheong argued that ignoring the possibility of a North Korean nuclear attack would effectively abandon South Korea’s security. He warned against unrealistic optimism, which could jeopardize the nation’s survival.
Cheong raised concerns about the effectiveness of South Korea’s current defense system, the Three-Axis System (Kill Chain, Korea Air and Missile Defense, and Mass Punishment and Retaliation), in countering North Korea’s evolving nuclear threats. He pointed out that North Korea not only possesses the capability for surprise attacks using solid-fuel missiles, but it also employs a strategy that mixes conventional and nuclear warhead missiles. This strategy could complicate the effectiveness of South Korea’s defenses. Additionally, Cheong highlighted North Korea’s rapid development of hypersonic missiles and its possession of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of striking the U.S. mainland. These advancements, Cheong warned, could render South Korea’s existing defense infrastructure inadequate in addressing the multifaceted nuclear threats posed by the North.
Cheong emphasized that the only solution to maintaining a balance of power on the Korean Peninsula is for South Korea to pursue nuclear armament. He noted that some U.S. politicians have become more open to the idea of South Korea developing nuclear weapons, suggesting that now may be the ideal time for South Korea to move forward with this strategy. Drawing on examples from countries like India, Pakistan, and Israel, Cheong pointed out that these nations developed nuclear arsenals with tacit approval from the United States. He argued that South Korea should explore ways to pursue nuclear armament while navigating international regulatory constraints. Cheong framed nuclear armament not just as a response to military threats but as a necessary strategic choice to maintain the regional balance of power and ensure peace on the Korean Peninsula.
Cheong also criticized South Korea’s political establishment and the general public for their lack of security awareness. He noted that some South Korean politicians still harbor overly optimistic beliefs about the possibility of North Korea’s denuclearization or think that peace can be achieved through engagement and goodwill with a nuclear-armed North Korea. Cheong warned that such unrealistic beliefs could further weaken South Korea’s security. He stressed the government’s need for a more pragmatic and realistic security strategy. He called on the public to recognize the seriousness of North Korea’s nuclear threat and to support the government’s push for nuclear armament.
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