Trump Leads in Five Key Swing States, Biden Loses Ground Among Under 30s and Minorities
Daniel Kim Views
NYT and Sienna University conducted polls in 6 swing states for the U.S. presidential election
Trump won in 5 states, and Biden won in 1 state
In the 2020 presidential election, Biden won all 6 states
Biden’s advantage diminishes and reverses among those under 30, people of color, gender, and regions
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A poll result revealing a significant disadvantage for President Joe Biden against former President Donald Trump in six swing states that will determine the direction of next year’s U.S. presidential election has been released.
The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 5th (local time) that a poll conducted with Siena College from October 22 to November 3 among 3,662 registered voters in the six swing states showed Trump leading in five states, with Biden leading in just one state.
In overall support rate, Trump also led with 48%, ahead of Biden, who stood at 44%.
The five states where Trump led were Nevada (52% to 41%), Georgia (49% to 43%), Arizona (49% to 44%), Michigan (48% to 43%), and Pennsylvania (48% to 44%). Biden only led in Wisconsin, ahead of Trump by 47% to 45%.
NYT analyzed that if this swing state atmosphere continues until next year’s election, Trump could secure far more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win, possibly reaching 300.
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In the 2020 election, Biden won in all six states, securing 306 electoral votes and defeating Trump, who had 232. In the 2016 election against Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton, Trump won in five of the six states, excluding Nevada, and defeated Clinton, who had 227, with 304 electoral votes.
The NYT noted that in this poll, Biden only led in Wisconsin, the state with the highest proportion of white voters among the six swing states.
This suggests that the support from a multiracial, multigenerational coalition contributing to Biden’s victory in the 2020 election is weakening.
Biden’s advantage among voters under 30 was just 1% (47% to 46%), his lead among Hispanic voters fell to single digits, and his advantage in urban areas (53% to 38%) was half of Trump’s lead in rural areas (60% to 32%).
Moreover, 22% of black voters, who have long been a stronghold for the Democrats and Biden, supported Trump in these six states, a level unprecedented in modern U.S. elections, according to the NYT.
While women still preferred Biden (50% to 42%), men’s preference for Trump (55% to 37%) was more than twice as high, reversing the gender advantage driving the Democrats’ momentum in recent years, the NYT explained.
Biden’s disadvantage was also confirmed in terms of policy.
In response to the question ‘Regardless of support, which candidate’s economic policy is more trustworthy?’, 59% of voters in the six swing states chose Trump, and 37% chose Biden.
Even regarding the war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which has become a major diplomatic issue, 50% of voters said they thought Trump would ‘solve the problem better.’ Only 39% of voters chose Biden.
Biden’s age, 80, was also reconfirmed as a stumbling block to his re-election. An overwhelming 71% of voters, including 54% of Biden’s supporters, agreed that ‘he is too old to perform his duties as president properly.’ In contrast, only 39%, including 19% of Trump’s supporters, said ‘he is too old’ about 77-year-old Trump.
By. Ha Man Joo
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