Bloomberg reported on Sunday that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un may deploy up to 100,000 troops to support Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. According to sources familiar with G20 analysis, the deployment is expected to occur gradually through rotational assignments rather than all at once.
Ukrainian Ambassador to South Korea, Dmytro Ponomarenko, indicated that Kyiv expects up to 15,000 North Korean troops to be stationed in Russia’s Kursk region and occupied areas of eastern Ukraine, rotating every few months. Sources close to the Russian Defense Ministry highlighted the need for rotational deployments to ensure the combat effectiveness of North Korean forces.
A source familiar with the Russian military’s strategy explained that a mechanism for replenishing North Korean losses is necessary, as otherwise, deployed units could quickly become ineffective in combat.
A 100,000-strong North Korean contingent could significantly bolster Russian forces. Western officials estimate that approximately 700,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded since the Ukraine conflict began on April 24, 2022. Ukrainian sources claimed they eliminated an average of 1,500 Russian soldiers daily in October.
Given that Russian forces were estimated at around 470,000 earlier this year (according to the Royal United Services Institute), these losses are staggering. This suggests Russia may struggle to sustain its war effort without troop support from allies like North Korea.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed concern over the potential North Korean troop deployment during a call with Putin, calling it a severe escalation of the conflict. Scholz also urged the withdrawal of Russian forces but noted that Putin’s stance appeared unchanged.
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