China Fears the Worst as North Korea Strengthens Ties with Russia: The U.S. Is Watching Closely

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell revealed on Sunday that China is growing uneasy about the strengthening relationship between North Korea and Russia. Discussions among U.S. security partners in Asia focus on Beijing’s potential role in North Korea’s deployment of 10,000 troops to Russia. Campbell’s remarks, reported by The Guardian, highlight the complexities of China’s position amid escalating tensions in the region.

Japan’s Foreign Ministry has expressed skepticism about China’s stance, noting Beijing’s silence on the issue. Tokyo believes that China fears the conflict in Ukraine could serve as a pretext for Washington further to strengthen its alliance network with South Korea and Japan. Adding to the dynamic, China recently informed Japan of plans to remove buoys installed in Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) near the disputed Senkaku Islands (known as Diaoyu in China). The gesture is seen as symbolic, potentially aimed at easing tensions with Japan while maintaining focus on larger strategic issues.

Speaking at a seminar hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, Campbell remarked that the relationship between North Korea and Russia has become a notably uncomfortable topic in discussions with Chinese officials. He noted that Beijing seemed worried that closer ties between Pyongyang and Moscow could embolden North Korea to take actions that conflicted with China’s interests. He added that while China has not directly criticized Russia, there is a belief that China is uneasy about the increasing closeness between North Korea and Russia.

Dennis Wilder, former CIA Deputy National Intelligence Officer for East Asia and the Pacific, commented, “The radio silence in Beijing on this subject is staggering.” He noted that if Russia provides nuclear support to North Korea, it could strengthen U.S. alliances in East Asia and potentially lead to the formation of an East Asian NATO.

Admiral Samuel Paparo, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, described the North Korea-China-Russia relationship as “transactional” and “symbiotic” at Saturday’s Halifax Security Forum in Canada. He argued that North Korea is likely supplying shells and missiles to Russia in exchange for missile and submarine technology.

Andrew Shearer, director of Australia’s Office of National Intelligence (ONI), expressed skepticism about China’s discomfort, “The idea of driving wedges between Putin and Xi is pretty fanciful, and if we do not face up to the reality that Putin is only still in the war in Ukraine today due to China’s military, diplomatic and dual-use support we are not going to fashion effective strategies.”

Doubts about China’s stance have also emerged in Japan, where MIFUNE Emi, a Komazawa University’s Faculty of Law professor, asserted that China must be aware of Russia’s plans. She argued that a Russian victory could provide China with propaganda advantages and set a precedent for its ambitions regarding Taiwan.