China’s Nuclear Arsenal Surpasses 600 Warheads—Experts Predict It Could Hit 1,000 by 2030

Recent intelligence reports reveal that China’s nuclear arsenal has surpassed 600 warheads this year, with projections indicating a potential increase to 1,000 by 2030. The Chinese government, known for underreporting its defense spending, is ramping up nuclear warhead production and pursuing an extensive military modernization program. However, these efforts are being hampered by widespread corruption within the ranks.

According to various media outlets, including the Financial Times (FT), the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) released its annual China Military Power Report on Wednesday. The report indicates that China now possesses over 600 operational nuclear warheads as of mid-2024. It forecasts that this number could exceed 1,000 by 2030, and China will continue to expand its nuclear capabilities until 2035.

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) estimated China’s nuclear arsenal at approximately 500 warheads in January, an increase of ninety warheads from the last year. Twenty-four of the warheads are reportedly deployed. North Korea’s arsenal is estimated at fifty warheads, up by 20 from last year, while India’s increased from 164 to 172. Globally, the total number of nuclear warheads has decreased to 12,121 from 12,512 a year ago, with the U.S. (5,044) and Russia (5,580) accounting for 90% of the global inventory.

The Pentagon estimates that China’s actual defense spending likely exceeds its official budget by 40% to 90%, projecting total defense expenditures for 2024 between $330 billion and $450 billion. The DOD report notes that China has set ambitious military modernization goals for 2027 and is making uneven progress across all domains. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ground forces, including reserves and paramilitary units, are estimated at about three million personnel. The PLA Navy, now the world’s largest, boasts over 370 ships and submarines, with projections of 395 vessels by 2025 and 435 by 2030.

China’s military aircraft inventory, excluding trainers and unmanned aerial vehicles, is estimated at 3,150 – the largest in the Indo-Pacific region and third globally. The Pentagon report highlights that China’s unmanned aerial systems are rapidly approaching U.S. standards in terms of modernization and localization. The PLA Rocket Force also continues to develop new missiles, including next-generation ICBMs.

According to a Pentagon report, China’s military modernization efforts face significant hurdles due to endemic corruption. The report highlights that high-level corruption within the Chinese military was exposed last year, potentially disrupting key modernization initiatives. In the latter half of 2023, at least fifteen high-ranking military officials and defense industry executives were charged with corruption, including Defense Minister Li Shangfu and Rocket Force Commander Li Yuchao, both of whom hold the rank of general.