This year’s US presidential election solidified as a match between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, is expected to be a historically “unlikeable election”. There are also predictions that a third-party figure could play a casting voter role in deciding the fate of the presidential election.
In a poll conducted by AP and the National Opinion Research Center (NORC) of the University of Chicago from the 22nd to the 26th of last month (local time), targeting 1,102 adults, both Biden and Trump received evaluations that they did not have the mental capacity to perform their duties from 63% and 57% of respondents, respectively. President Biden faced a risk of no confidence voting for “No Candidate Deserves My Vote,” in the primaries related to Middle Eastern issues, and former President Trump is facing significant legal risks involved in four criminal cases with a total of 91 charges.
As evidence of this, there were instances in the primaries where someone other than the two candidates was chosen. President Biden and former President Trump won a landslide victory in most areas on Super Tuesday when the contours of the presidential candidates were revealed, however, they suffered unexpected defeats in some areas. President Biden lost to a non-profit activist Jason Palmer (52), who was 30 years younger than him, in American Samoa, where the Democratic caucus was held. Former President Trump also took a hit from former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley in Vermont, where the Republican primary was held.
Therefore, an analysis that shows a third figure could play a casting voter role in this year’s US presidential election, where the “unlikable election” is highly likely. CNN assessed that both candidates have flaws and lack popular appeal with the remaining election period possibly being dominated by mutual attacks. Considering that a few votes difference in some swing states decided the path to the White House in the 2020 presidential election, which was the first match between Biden and Trump, it is explained that a newly emerged third candidate could influence the election results.
In the United States, where the two-party system is firmly established, the opinion that a third candidate cannot have a significant influence because it is difficult to secure a high approval rating is dominant. However, CNN evaluated that it cannot be ignored as a factor in the election results, as the candidates of the Libertarian Party and the Green Party absorbed the votes for Hillary Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate, and contributed to Trump’s election in the 2016 presidential election.
Rapper Kanye West made headlines as an independent candidate in the presidential election four years ago. In this year’s presidential election, there are predictions that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the nephew of former President John F. Kennedy who expressed his intention to run for president, could be a variable if he makes it to the main election in November. In fact, in a poll conducted by Reuters and Ipsos last December targeting 4,411 adults across the United States, 16% of respondents chose Robert Kennedy when given the choice of Robert Kennedy, Trump, and Biden.
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