Kennedy Jr. with around 10% approval rating
Biden “uneasy” amid concerns about moderate voter sentiment
Trump expects the Democratic vote to be split
Despite coming from a prestigious family, Kennedy Jr. was distanced from mainstream Democrats
As the U.S. presidential election proceeds in a two-party system, independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr.’s declaration of “running to the finish line” complicates President Joe Biden’s calculations. If Kennedy Jr., a Democrat-affiliated candidate, makes it to the main election, he could split Biden’s votes. However, skepticism about the viability of a third-party candidate’s presence in history suggests that it may be challenging for him to continue to the main election.
On the 26th (local time), independent candidate Kennedy Jr. announced his intention to see the election through to the end by nominating Nicole Shanahan as his vice-presidential candidate. In response to this, on the 27th, former President Donald Trump, who is running in the election from the Republican party, criticized Kennedy Jr. as the “most radical candidate” on his social media Truth Social, but also welcomed him by saying, “I’m so glad he’s running.” He expects Kennedy, currently polling around 10%, to absorb votes from Democratic President Joe Biden.
Voices from within and outside the Democratic party have criticized Kennedy Jr. The Kennedys, a leading Democratic political family, have consistently discouraged him from running. Jack Schlossberg, the son of President John F. Kennedy’s daughter, publicly stated that Kennedy Jr.’s candidacy was embarrassing and urged people not to be swayed by someone’s vanity but to vote for Biden. The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 27th (local time) that Biden’s camp supporters believe Kennedy Jr. does not align with mainstream liberal values.
Robert Kennedy Jr. is the nephew of revered former U.S. President John F. Kennedy and the son of former Attorney General Robert F. Kennedy. Despite hailing from a political dynasty, he has often acted contrary to the party’s principles. As an environmental lawyer, he supported Biden’s environmental policies, such as limiting the use of fossil fuels, but strongly opposed military aid to Ukraine. Also, during the COVID-19 pandemic, he distanced himself from the mainstream Democratic party by opposing mandatory vaccination and isolation policies, similar to former President Trump. The NYT even mocked him, saying he would get along quite well with the right wing.
Despite being a discarded card, he suddenly emerged as a casting vote that could determine the direction of the presidential election. According to recent polls, his approval ratings are hard to ignore. In the Harvard-Harris poll conducted nationwide from March 20 to 21, Kennedy Jr.’s net favorability rating (favorability minus unfavorability) was 17%, the highest among major figures. Former President Trump had a net favorability rating of 4%, while President Biden showed -7%. Moreover, in a hypothetical three-way race in the main presidential election, he recorded a 15% approval rating and, more importantly, gained the trust of 23% of independent supporters. For the Democrats aiming to appeal to the moderate electorate, his presence is undoubtedly burdensome.
However, the prevailing view is that third-party candidates in U.S. history ultimately fizzle out. There have been occasional instances where they influenced the main election. CBS News cited the case in 1992 when third-party candidate Ross Perot secured 19% of the vote, helping Democratic candidate Bill Clinton defeat his Republican rival George H.W. Bush. However, the media pointed out that “historically, as voter participation increases, the presence of third-party candidates has become less significant” and “some surveys show that Kennedy is not particularly liked.”
Meanwhile, Nicole Shanahan, Kennedy Jr.’s running mate, is also a subject of controversy. Shanahan, a lawyer from California, is well-known as the ex-wife of Google co-founder Sergey Brin. After a sudden divorce last May, she became the center of attention for her alleged affair with Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Last month, Shanahan donated around $4 million to the Kennedy campaign, marking her support for Kennedy.
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