Speculation is mounting that if Donald Trump secures a second term in the U.S. presidential election, South Korea may significantly increase its imports of American energy, particularly oil and gas. According to a Bloomberg report on Monday, informed sources revealed that South Korean officials have been preparing for months to navigate potential outcomes of the U.S. election, whether Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris wins.
In recent weeks, South Korean government officials have reportedly been holding discussions with businesses and research institutions to strategize for a post-election landscape. A key concern for South Korea is its growing trade surplus with the U.S., an issue Trump has long criticized as part of his broader campaign against trade imbalances with U.S. trading partners.
Last year, South Korea’s trade surplus with the U.S. totaled $51.4 billion, making it one of the largest among the U.S. trading partners, along with China, Mexico, Vietnam, Germany, Japan, Canada, and Ireland. Before Trump’s first inauguration in 2017, South Korea had already urged major refineries to diversify their crude oil suppliers, citing energy security and price stability concerns.
This year, American suppliers have provided about 11% of gas imports and 17% of oil imports to Asian countries. SK Innovation and GS Caltex are some of the largest energy importers in this context. The recent escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could further motivate companies to pivot towards American energy sources; for instance, SK Energy has noted in its earnings report that crude oil from the U.S. and Canada offers high profitability. Analysts suggest that if Trump secures a second term, the South Korean government might encourage companies to increase American oil and gas purchases.
The presidential race between Harris and Trump has intensified into a neck-and-neck battle as Election Day approaches. Bloomberg reports that a Trump victory could intensify U.S. pressure on trade partners. South Korea is thus considering boosting energy imports as a strategic response. Governments worldwide are reassessing their diplomatic strategies, considering Trump’s potential to impose a minimum 10% tariff on all imports and increase tariffs on Chinese goods by up to 60%.
While the U.S. remains crucial to South Korea’s semiconductor industry and broader manufacturing sector, South Korea’s cooperation will continue to be essential for enforcing U.S. export sanctions against China. At the same time, South Korea, which relies on U.S. military support for defense against North Korea, has also been cultivating closer ties with Russia in recent years, balancing its international relationships amid evolving geopolitical dynamics.
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