North Korea Responds to US-South Korea Drills

Amid predictions that North Korea will provoke in response to the South Korea-U.S. joint training Freedom of Shield (FS), which started on the 4th, it is being evaluated that they are responding with relatively low intensity. However, there is also an opinion that there is a high possibility of high-intensity provocation as the South Korea-U.S. training intensifies. According to the North Korean Central News Agency and others, on the 10th, Kim Jong Un directed military training for two consecutive days during the US-South Korea joint exercise period.The North Korean Central News Agency reported on the 8th that Chairman Kim emphasized at the site where he directed artillery firing training for the North Korean People’s Army joint forces on the 7th, “We must strengthen the artillery power, which is the pride and foundation of our army, by substantially organizing and conducting practical training to significantly improve artillery combat power.”

The agency reported that Chairman Kim visited the key operation training base in the western district of the North Korean military on the 6th and ordered the soldiers to complete war preparations by personally taking a shooting position. At this place, Chairman Kim instructed, “Prepare to perform various trainings in a real-life environment.”

Last year, North Korea continued high-intensity provocation by firing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs), etc., during the joint exercise period in March. However, this year, only relatively weak responses, such as speeches containing Chairman Kim’s remarks and instructions to strengthen training, are coming out.

However, as the US-South Korea joint training continues until the 14th, it is considered that we need to observe the situation a little more to figure out if North Korea will raise the level of provocation in line with the training.

A Ministry of Unification official said, “It’s difficult to determine (North Korea’s reaction) as the joint training is still at the beginning,” and explained, “There were threats such as deciding on practical measures by holding the Central Military Commission of the Party in March last year, and creating a crisis by announcing that about 1.4 million people petitioned for enlistment and re-enlistment targeting the youth.”

Meanwhile, American experts who have been studying North Korea for decades are diagnosing that the possibility of war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula is higher than ever, urging the U.S. government for active interest and intervention to alleviate concerns about war on the Korean Peninsula.

Siegfried Hecker, an emeritus professor at Stanford University, and Robert Carlin, a researcher at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies, emphasized at a discussion titled ‘Is North Korea Preparing for War?’, held at Stanford University in the United States on the 7th (local time), that “Unlike in the past, Kim Jong Un is seriously considering war,” and “The possibility of war breaking out is the highest since the Korean War.”

Previously, Chairman Kim had made strong remarks, saying in January, “I have no intention of avoiding war.”