North Korea is unlikely to hold an advantageous position in any preemptive strike
Concerns over the destructive impact on the global economy and semiconductor supply chain
Amid speculations of a potential second Korean War on the Korean Peninsula, Bloomberg reported on the 3rd that Kim Jong Un would likely face destruction in most Korean War scenarios. Even considering all possibilities of preemptive strikes, including provocation in the West Sea, attacks on Seoul, and full-scale war, the chances of North Korea winning with its outdated equipment are slim, according to the analysis.
Now in his 13th year of ruling North Korea, Kim has been ramping up his hostile rhetoric against South Korea. Powered by the rapid advancement of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and missile program, he has removed the goal of peaceful unification from the North Korean constitution and declared his right to annihilate South Korea. Some prominent analysts have started to warn that Kim Jong Un may seriously be preparing for war.
Of course, most experts argue that a full-scale attack would be dismal or suicidal for North Korea, and the response from the U.S. and South Korea would likely end the nearly 80 years of the Kim family’s rule. Bloomberg assessed that even if North Korea makes any preemptive provocation, it won’t be able to maintain an advantageous position for long, whether it’s provocation in the West Sea, attacks on Seoul, or full-scale war.
South Korea has the Patriot defense system capable of intercepting incoming missiles, an active-duty military force of 555,000, and a defense budget larger than the entire North Korean economy, which has been devastated by sanctions. In addition, 28,500 U.S. troops are stationed in South Korea, and U.S. spy satellites continuously monitor the Korean Peninsula.
On the other hand, the International Strategic Studies Institute analyzed, “North Korea has an advantage in terms of manpower, but most of its military relies on outdated equipment dating back to the Soviet era.” In a recent report, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency pointed out that “the insufficient availability of fuel and transportation assets, poor maintenance of ground communication lines, and lack of training are restricting North Korea’s ability to carry out large-scale conventional attack operations.”
Nevertheless, a military clash between North and South Korea poses risks to both South Korea and the world. The world could be drawn into another war in a situation where wars are already being fought in the Middle East and Ukraine, potentially leading to a destructive impact on the global economy and the semiconductor supply chain. Bloomberg pointed out, “South Korea, home to global tech and manufacturing powerhouses like Samsung Electronics, LG Electronics, and Kia Motors, especially in Seoul where about 70% of the economy is concentrated, even a brief military clash could have a significant ripple effect across the global supply chain.”
Most analysts are skeptical about the speculation that Kim has decided to go to war. The dominant analysis is that his aggressive rhetoric is merely an exaggerated military threat intended to influence the South Korean General Election and extract more concessions from the West. Bloomberg explained that the fact that North Korea is selling millions of shells to Russia could be another signal that Kim does not want a war.
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