A study has found that China will face an unprecedented population decline, with 19 million deaths annually by 2061. This number exceeds the total population of the Netherlands (approximately 17.7 million) as of last year.
According to the South China Morning Post (SCMP), a research team from Fudan University in China announced these findings in the journal Population Studies, published at the end of May.
The researchers pointed out that China, which has enjoyed a demographic dividend as the world’s second-largest economy in 2061, will reach a death peak with 19 million deaths annually by 2061. This is due to the rapid aging of the population and a sharp decline in the birth rate, leading to a demographic crisis.
The demographic dividend refers to the economic growth that can occur when the dependency ratio decreases, and the proportion of the working-age population increases within the total population.
SCMP reported that Fudan University’s research results became a hot topic on Chinese social media this month.
The researchers pointed out, “While large-scale elderly deaths are a natural result of demographic transition, China’s death peak is approaching rapidly and on an unprecedented scale, posing significant challenges to individuals, families, and society as a whole.”
They emphasized that China needs to prepare for the demographic challenges as the boomer generation, born before the one-child policy of the 1980s, is aging rapidly. The surge in deaths is expected to become more pronounced starting in 2040.
The number of newborns in China has fallen for two consecutive years, dropping below 10 million in both 2022 and 2023. This is the first time since the founding of the People’s Republic of China in 1949 that the number of newborns has fallen below 10 million. In contrast, the number of deaths in China last year exceeded 11.1 million.
The researchers predict that despite supportive policies from Chinese authorities, the birth rate would remain low due to the decreasing number of women of childbearing age and changing attitudes towards childbirth.
They added that to prevent social conflicts such as expensive deaths and costly graves, it is necessary to accelerate the establishment of a hospice care system to improve the quality of life and strengthen funeral services in the medium to long term.
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