A recent analysis indicates that the likelihood of war breaking out on the Korean Peninsula is at its highest since the Korean War in 1950. In an article published by Foreign Policy, Robert Manning, a senior researcher at the Stimson Center, predicted that while an all-out war on the Korean Peninsula seems unlikely in the immediate future, North Korea is highly likely to take dramatic actions within the next 6 to 18 months.
Manning’s assessment is based on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s declaration of his country as a nuclear power and his characterization of the relationship between North and South Korea as one of “hostility.”
Based on insights from Korean experts and existing National Intelligence Council (NIC) analyses, Manning outlined two potential conflict scenarios that could unfold.
In the first scenario, North Korea could shell Yeonpyeong Island in response to joint U.S.-South Korea military drills, followed by a direct landing of troops. South Korea would likely respond by mobilizing its air force and navy to strike North Korean vessels and deploying marines to defend the island. This could escalate further, with North Korea potentially detonating a tactical nuclear weapon on an uninhabited island in the Yellow Sea. Manning warned that such a scenario could spiral out of control, given the lack of reliable diplomatic and military communication channels between the U.S., South Korea, and North Korea.
The second scenario suggested by former NIC member Marcus Galeruskas last year envisions simultaneous conflicts in Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula. In this scenario, North Korea might attack South Korea while the U.S. shifts military resources to counter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Manning also raised the possibility of coordinated invasions, with China and North Korea launching military actions against Taiwan and South Korea at the same time.
Despite these concerning possibilities, Manning pointed out that both the U.S. and China currently view the Korean Peninsula as a lower priority, with more urgent crises in places like Ukraine and the Middle East drawing global attention.
Manning concluded that Kim Jong Un’s actions in the coming months may be intended to send a message to the outside world.
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