North Korea Steps Up Provocations—Is an ICBM Test Looming Before Trump’s Inauguration?

South Korea’s military sources indicated on Wednesday that North Korea may conduct an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test before the inauguration of Donald Trump’s second administration, prompting increased surveillance by U.S. and allied forces. These sources revealed that since last year, U.S. intelligence had detected mobile launchers (TEL) for ICBM launches moving in the Pyongyang area.

This activity follows North Korea’s claim of successfully testing a new hypersonic IRBM on Monday, which analysts interpret as a move to strengthen Pyongyang’s negotiating position with the incoming Trump administration.

In a press briefing, Lee Sung Jun, a spokesperson for South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), said, “We are closely monitoring various military activities, including potential missile launches, and assessing the possibility of additional provocations.” The JCS confirmed North Korea’s hypersonic missile launch and announced heightened surveillance and readiness measures in preparation for further actions.

North Korea has a history of provocations timed around U.S. elections and presidential transitions. Pyongyang conducted its fifth nuclear test just two months before the 2016 U.S. presidential election and launched seven medium-range missiles between February and May following Trump’s inauguration in 2017. These actions were used to gain leverage in negotiations with Washington.

North Korea is reportedly preparing an ICBM, believed to be the “Hwasong-19,” mounted on a TEL. This ICBM uses a solid-fuel propulsion system, allowing for rapid and covert launches. Since its test launch on October 31, North Korea has heavily promoted it as the “final version” of its ICBM program.

Defense analysts warn that if the Hwasong-19 can carry multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) and incorporate hypersonic technology, it could strike various targets on the U.S. mainland, posing a significant national security threat.

Military and diplomatic experts are closely monitoring the possibility of a North Korean ICBM launch before Trump’s inauguration on January 20.

North Korea claimed that its hypersonic missile test on Monday successfully struck a target 932 miles offshore. However, international observers have questioned the reliability of this assertion. South Korean, U.S. and Japanese intelligence agencies detected the missile launch near Pyongyang. If the missile had flown 932 miles over North Hamgyong Province, it would have reached Japan’s Hokkaido island.

If North Korea’s claims were accurate, the missile would have landed on Japanese territory or flown as far as the La Perouse Strait between Hokkaido and Russia’s Sakhalin Island. The JCS assessed the missile’s flight distance at approximately 683.5 miles, with the Japanese government providing a similar estimate, suggesting it likely fell outside their exclusive economic zone (EEZ). Even accounting for potential tracking errors, North Korea’s claims were deemed to lack credibility.

JCS stated, “We believe North Korea’s claims regarding the flight distance and secondary peak altitude are likely exaggerated, and we assess the test as ultimately unsuccessful.” They also expressed skepticism about North Korea’s alleged use of new carbon fiber composite materials in the hypersonic IRBM, stating, “North Korea has a well-established propaganda apparatus and is known for deception and exaggeration in its claims.”