Breaking Down North Korea’s Latest ICBM: What the Hwasong-19 Means for Global Tensions

On October 31, just before the U.S. presidential election, North Korea conducted a provocative test by launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The missile soared to a record-breaking altitude of over 4,350 miles and flew for an unprecedented 1 hour and 26 minutes. Military experts have analyzed that, under a normal trajectory, this missile could cover a distance of approximately 9,900 miles—sufficient to target any location within the continental United States. This launch is viewed as a stark demonstration of North Korea’s capability to strike across the American mainland.

North Korea Unveils Hwasong-19

The day after the test, North Korea claimed a successful trial of its latest missile, dubbed the Hwasong-19, calling it the pinnacle of their ICBM development. Defense analysts assess this missile as a new, more potent solid-fuel variant, likely an evolution of the earlier Hwasong-18 model.

The Hwasong-19 features a wider warhead and alterations to its body, which indicate the integration of an advanced propulsion system. These modifications suggest an increased payload capacity and the potential for equipping the missile with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs), significantly escalating its threat level.

Should the Hwasong-19 be confirmed as MIRV-capable, it could possess a range exceeding 9,900 miles. This capability would enable North Korea to launch simultaneous strikes on multiple high-value targets across the U.S., including cities like New York and Washington, D.C.

Comparisons with Russian ICBM Technology

South Korean Representative Yoo Yong Won, a former military affairs journalist, analyzed the new missile. He noted its similarities in design to Russia’s RS-28 Sarmat, particularly the blunt warhead shape and its large diameter, alongside a new solid-fuel engine designed for MIRV applications. Yoo highlighted that the first stage of the North Korean missile resembles that of Russia’s RS-24 Yars, suggesting a sharing of missile technology or inspiration.

Russia’s RS-28 Sarmat ICBM, a fifth-generation missile, is often highlighted during pronouncements of nuclear capability. Unveiled in 2016, the Sarmat has been consistently promoted as a cornerstone of Russia’s strategic arsenal, signifying President Vladimir Putin’s commitment to maintaining a formidable nuclear deterrent.

In 2018, President Putin announced the completion of the Sarmat, proclaiming its advanced capabilities as a strategic game-changer for Russia. He emphasized its ability to carry up to 15 nuclear warheads and achieve hypersonic speeds over Mach 5, with a maximum range estimated at about 11,180 miles. This makes the Sarmat a significant asset in Russia’s military portfolio, with the potential to reach adversaries across the globe.

Deterrent Against Western Intervention in Ukraine 

Following the onset of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has leveraged the Sarmat as a key element of its deterrent strategy against Western military support for Ukraine. The Kremlin has frequently incorporated the Sarmat into its nuclear threat rhetoric, with Russian officials warning of severe retaliatory measures against any Western aggression.

Vyacheslav Volodin, Chairman of the Russian State Duma, explicitly cautioned in September that any Ukrainian use of Western-supplied weapons against Russian territory would prompt a nuclear response, highlighting the Sarmat’s capability to strike targets like Strasbourg, France, within minutes.

Russian military expert Alexei Leonkov has speculated that a coordinated launch of ten Sarmat missiles could theoretically obliterate the entire population of the United States. Each missile, with a payload of 6.75 to 7.5 megatons, could inflict catastrophic casualties reminiscent of the devastation witnessed during the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings.

Russia’s RS-24 Yars: A Blueprint for North Korean Advances

Russia’s RS-24 Yars ICBM, integral to its strategic arsenal, is often cited as the inspiration behind North Korea’s Hwasong-18 missile. Originating from the Topol-M, developed throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, the Yars represents a significant evolution, being an upgraded, MIRV-capable (Multiple Independently targetable Re-entry Vehicle) variant of its predecessor.

While the Topol-M is equipped with a singular 500-kiloton warhead, the Yars can deploy at least four independently targetable re-entry vehicles, each with a yield ranging from 150 to 200 kilotons. To put this in perspective, a single 500-kiloton warhead possesses over 30 times the destructive power of the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

Commissioned into service in 2009, the Yars can target locations up to 7,500 miles away. Thanks to its array of decoy warheads and countermeasures designed to evade interception, it is particularly valued within Russia’s Strategic Missile Forces for its effectiveness against sophisticated U.S. missile defense systems, such as THAAD.

The Yars is noted for its precision, with a circular error probable (CEP) of just 492 feet for targets over 6,200 miles away. In a significant move to modernize its forces, President Putin has announced that 72% of Russia’s ICBM arsenal will be replaced with Yars missiles. Strategic Missile Forces Commander Sergei Karakayev detailed that regiments in locations such as Kozelsk, Yoshkar-Ola, Novosibirsk, and Irkutsk will be upgraded to this newer missile system.

North Korea’s Latest ICBM Developments

In a striking demonstration on October 31, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and his daughter Kim Juae observed the launch of the Hwasong-19, which is claimed to be North Korea’s most advanced ICBM yet. This missile, significantly larger than the previously unveiled Hwasong-17 and Hwasong-18, is purported to carry heavier nuclear payloads and marks a substantial upgrade in performance. It is potentially capable of striking multiple U.S. cities simultaneously.

Despite the apparent advancements, some military analysts suggest that the Hwasong-19’s launch was more of a strategic display than a step toward operational deployment. They note the missile’s overly large size could hinder practical deployment and mobility. Jang Young-geun of the Korea National Strategy Institute pointed out that its size and weight exceed those of similar American and Russian missiles, which prioritize mobility and tactical utility.

Military officials believe the test might have involved heavier or multiple warhead systems, aligning with one of Kim Jong Un’s major military objectives set for completion by 2026. However, the missile was again launched at a high, lofted angle rather than a standard trajectory, raising doubts about its ability to perform the critical atmospheric re-entry necessary for long-range strikes.

While North Korea continues to develop its missile technology, the practical utility of such massive ICBMs remains in question, with indications that their deployment may serve more for intimidation than actual strategic combat readiness, reflecting a continuing trend in North Korea’s approach to international military posturing.