With Donald Trump set to take office as the President of the United States in January, many are curious about how he will handle U.S.-South Korea relations and the North Korean nuclear issue. However, his policies regarding the Korean Peninsula have not been clear.
During his campaign, Trump hinted at the possibility of re-engaging in diplomacy with North Korea and mentioned the costs associated with maintaining U.S. troops in South Korea. But more than a month after his election, he hasn’t addressed these topics directly.
Reuters reported on November 26 that Trump’s team is discussing options for direct talks between Trump and Kim. Through this new diplomatic effort, they hope to reduce the risk of military conflict.
Trump appointed Alex Wong as the Deputy National Security Advisor for the National Security Council (NSC) on November 22, which has led to speculation about his continued interest in North Korean diplomacy.
During Trump’s first term, Wong played a significant role in preparing for the U.S.-North Korea summits, serving as the State Department’s Special Representative for North Korea and Deputy Assistant Secretary for East Asian and Pacific Affairs.
Many analysts believe that Trump may not immediately focus on North Korea, considering the domestic and international challenges facing the U.S.
The ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, which have troubled the Biden administration, are likely to remain the most urgent diplomatic and security issues for Trump’s second term.
Although Trump has not explicitly outlined his approach to North Korean diplomacy, he has pledged to end the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza during his campaign, suggesting that he may prioritize those issues for now.
Despite limited engagement with foreign leaders, Trump met with Israeli Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer at Mar-a-Lago last month and publicly pressed Hamas to release hostages. On November 12, he appointed his close associate Steve Witkoff as a Middle East envoy, naming Keith Kellogg as a Ukraine-Russia envoy on November 27.
On November 12, Trump appointed his golf buddy, real estate entrepreneur Steve Witkoff, as a special envoy to the Middle East. On November 27, he Named Keith Kellogg, the former National Security Advisor to Vice President Pence, as a special envoy for Ukraine and Russia.
Should Trump implement the universal tariffs and tariffs against China that he promised, his administration will likely focus heavily on trade negotiations with countries worldwide for some time.
Sydney Seiler, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and a former North Korea officer at the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC), stated in a phone interview with Yonhap News that given the various issues Trump will have to address upon taking office, Russia will likely be his top priority. He added that he does not expect Trump to chase after Kim.
Seiler mentioned that if Trump makes progress on domestic issues and with Russia, he might devote more effort to resuming dialogue with North Korea in the future. He pointed out that people often overlook the importance of North Korea’s willingness to engage in dialogue. Consequently, he believes that Trump will likely respond positively if Kim proposes a meeting.
Some speculate that, as has happened in the past, North Korea might engage in provocative actions that demand Trump’s attention, making it impossible for the U.S. to ignore them.
Given that North Korea has further advanced its nuclear and missile capabilities compared to Trump’s first term, many experts doubt that North Korea will negotiate with the U.S. on the premise of denuclearization as they did previously.
There are also views that if Trump resolves the issue of the Ukraine war, North Korea may feel the need to resume talks with the U.S. as its means of earning foreign currency through arms sales and troop deployments may be restricted.
Some argue that since the relationship between North Korea and Russia has already developed significantly, Russia will continue to support North Korea even after the war ends.
Regarding U.S.-South Korea relations, there are concerns that Trump will treat the alliance more as a transactional relationship than a traditional friendship, especially as he pressures South Korea to increase defense spending.
Given that Trump has promised universal tariffs, South Korea, which has a significant trade surplus with the U.S., finds itself in a particularly burdensome situation.
There are positive views that South Korea will have ample opportunities to strengthen cooperation with the Trump administration, considering its strategic value in countering China in the Indo-Pacific region.
Trump also acknowledged the need for cooperation with South Korea by discussing the shipbuilding industry during his first phone call with President Yoon Suk Yeol.
Some analysts caution that it remains to be seen whether Trump’s vision of cooperation will be mutual or will lean towards unilateral demands that primarily benefit the U.S., such as significant increases in defense spending.
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