AI Drones Threatening Energy Markets, Ukraine Attack Disrupts Russian Oil Production

Ukraine attacks 18 Russian refineries this year
Increased use of AI-equipped drones
Concerns grow among oil-importing countries like China and India

CNBC reported on the 14th (local time) that Artificial intelligence (AI) drones are disrupting energy markets as Ukraine’s intensified attacks on Russian refineries continue.

According to JP Morgan, drones launched from Ukraine have attacked 18 Russian refineries this year alone. The total production from these refineries is about 3.9 million barrels daily, with approximately 670,000 barrels of the Russian output currently halted.

Ukrainian drone technology is becoming increasingly sophisticated. Earlier this month, Ukraine attacked the Taneco refinery in Russia, which is 1300km (about 807 miles) away from the front lines. Natasha Kaneva, an analyst at JP Morgan, explained, “AI increases the accuracy of targeted strikes in specific areas and maximizes the impact of the attacks. Ukraine is increasingly using drones equipped with AI to avoid radio interference and assist in route navigation.”

As Ukraine has embarked on a full-scale drone development project this year, the impact on Russia’s refining capabilities is expected to grow. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine has announced plans to produce 1 million drones this year. JP Morgan predicts that “If Ukraine can extend the flight range of drones to 1500km (about 932 miles), they could attack 21 Russian refineries with a combined refining capacity of more than 4.4 million barrels.”

In an investment memo, Bob Brackett, a senior research analyst at the American investment bank Bernstein, said, “AI drones could disrupt global maritime trade. Not only oil-exporting countries like Russia, but also oil-importing countries like China and India should be concerned about the disruption of oil flow due to drone attacks.”