Allies prepare scenarios for Trump’s reelection.
Back channel diplomacy and appointment of pro-Trump personnel are underway
Korea takes a low-key approach while keeping an eye on Biden
| Former President Donald Trump (left) is meeting with former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso at Trump Tower in Midtown Manhattan, New York, on the 23rd (local time). |
As the U.S. Presidential election in November is about six months away, American allies are preparing for the potential “Trump 2.0” era as former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden’s approval ratings remain close.
According to Reuters on the 24th (local time), “American allies are taking measures to boost their interests in case Trump returns to power.”
They aim to prevent the damage caused by Trump’s “America First” policy if he unexpectedly regains power.
Germany, which took a direct hit to its auto industry during Trump’s tenure, is reportedly circumventing diplomacy. According to German diplomatic channels, BMW is increasing contact with Republican-leaning states like Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Alabama, where it has established operations. Michael Link, who leads the circumvent diplomacy, told Reuters, “Blocking Trump’s planned punitive tariffs on European goods will be very important.”
Mexico, which needs to solve the drug trafficking problem, is also conscious of Trump. According to Reuters, Mexico’s ruling party is considering appointing Marcelo Ebrard, the country’s foreign minister during the Trump administration, as the next foreign minister if Trump is elected.
Some leaders have directly contacted Trump. According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) recently called the former president, and Hungarian President Viktor Orban and Polish President Andrzej Duda met with Trump on the 18th.
The Polish President discussed the defense costs of NATO member countries with Trump. Duda proposed increasing the defense cost target from 2% to 3% of the GDP. The former President responded, “He is my friend.”
Japan, a major ally, is also meeting directly with Trump. Former Japanese Prime Minister Taro Aso and Trump met in New York the day before. As Trump’s chances of reelection increase, Japan has coined the term “Moshi Tora (What if Trump).” Reuters reported, “Japan is considering employing Takao Snao, who interpreted during the famous golf meeting between former President Trump and then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.”
Meanwhile, South Korea is approaching the situation cautiously. The communication said, “Given the relationship with the Biden administration, it prefers to understand Trump’s thinking through lobbying firms in a secretive manner rather than directly contacting the former president’s side.”
Reuters described the situation as “Washington’s lobby street is bustling with Koreans trying to understand former President Trump’s views on trade and investment, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) during the Biden administration.”
In a poll of 1,470 registered voters conducted by public opinion polling agency YouGov at the request of The Economist, public opinion was tightly divided between President Biden and former President Trump at 43% each.
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