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With an aborted assassination attempt on former U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday, the upcoming November U.S. election has plunged into utter chaos. Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, is competing against Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden. Given these candidates’ notable differences in policy approach, the world, including South Korea, is keeping a close eye on the direction of the incoming presidential race.
Direction of the presidential race
Even after being shot, Trump, surrounded by his bodyguards, left the rally while reassuring his supporters that he was okay. Despite blood on his right ear and face, he managed to send a political message to his supporters.
This is in stark contrast to Biden, who has been under pressure within the Democratic Party to step down as a presidential candidate due to recent health rumors surrounding his cognitive abilities.
The risk of his age is becoming more prominent as Biden, born in 1943, continues to make verbal mistakes at public podiums. Biden is three years older than Trump, who was born in 1946. The Republicans are predicting a higher chance of Trump’s election victory, implying that his support base will consolidate further after the attempted assassination attempt.
“President Trump survived this attack – he just won the election,” said Derrick Van Orden, a Republican congressman from Wisconsin, in a local media interview. Tim Burchett, another Republican congressman, predicted that Trump’s post-shooting chant of “Fight. Fight. Fight” will become the election slogan.
The failure of the United States Secret Service (USSS), a federal agency, is also under scrutiny, likely increasing Biden’s burden. Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson announced a full investigation. The Secret Service, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) are under investigation.
However, many argue that it is too premature to predict Trump’s lead in the presidential race due to this incident, as the motive for the crime has not been identified, and there are still four months left until the election.
Impact on South Korean economy
While Biden emphasizes solidarity with allies and free trade within the international community, Trump advocates for America-first and isolationist policies. The two also hold different stances on significant issues. South Korea, which has been aligning its policies with the Biden administration since President Yoon Suk Yeol’s inauguration, will inevitably face changes in its foreign security and economic trade policies if Trump returns to power.
Examining their key policy pledges, Biden focuses on stabilizing the supply chain among allies in the trade and investment sectors. Meanwhile, Trump prioritizes building a domestic supply chain. Their trade policies with China also differ: Biden mainly limits exports in advanced industries, whereas Trump seeks to restrict exports across various areas, including finance, intellectual property, and human resources. Considering Korea’s relationship with China, Trump’s approach is likely to pose an increased China risk for South Korea.
While Biden increases subsidies and incentives for semiconductors and IRAs in the manufacturing sector, Trump is expected to reduce them. If Trump wins the election, there will be inevitable repercussions for Korea’s major companies, including Samsung Electronics, SK, and Hyundai Motor Group.
Major countries, including Europe, where governments are shifting due to economic difficulties, are also gearing up for imminent “Trump risk.” According to foreign media, European embassy personnel in the United States are focusing on increasing contact with individuals who could be appointed as officials if Trump returns to power.
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