Experts Predict North Korea to Maintain ‘Two Hostile States’ Framework, Strengthen Ties with Russia

The roundtable, chaired by Jo Gyu Rae, director of the Foreign Strategy and Information Bureau, was organized by South Korea’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It brought together domestic North Korean experts.

As reported by the ministry on Tuesday, participants assessed North Korea’s political, social, economic, inter-Korean relations, foreign affairs, and military developments from the previous year. They exchanged perspectives on the outlook for this year. The event was attended by prominent North Korean specialists from key research institutions, including Byun Sang Junng, head of the North Korea Research Office at the National Security Strategy Institute, Choi Woo Seon, a professor at the National Diplomatic Academy, and Han Ki Bum, a chair research fellow at the North Korea Research Institute.

The experts projected North Korea would prioritize strengthening internal cohesion in light of the eighth anniversary of the party’s founding this year. They anticipate that Pyongyang will persist in its efforts to deny national unity under the “Two Hostile States” framework. While the North Korean regime is expected to continue pushing policies such as the “Local Development 20×10” initiative, the analysts predict that internal economic contradictions, including inefficient resource allocation, will inevitably constrain economic progress.

The attendees concurred that North Korea would maintain its focus on expanding cooperation with Russia, potentially including additional troop deployments and arms support. They particularly stressed the importance of closely monitoring related developments this year, given the possibility of significant provocations from North Korea and the potential for renewed U.S.-North Korea dialogue as a new U.S. administration takes office.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs affirmed its commitment to ongoing exchanges of situational analyses with domestic and international experts and key nations. This approach ensures that North Korea-related foreign policy is formulated and implemented based on timely and accurate assessments.