A poll on the 4th and 5th shows a tie for approval rating at 45%
“Defense industry is positive despite Trump’s comments on increase of defense cost sharing with Korea.”
Anticipations are high as President Joe Biden will possibly have a rematch with former President Donald Trump in the upcoming November presidential election, four years after their last face-off. Domestic investors have started looking for beneficial stocks related to the strong candidates.
On the 12th, the securities industry recommended paying attention to growth stocks, defense, traditional energy sectors, and biotech companies, which have historically benefited from Trump’s candidacy. On the other hand, if President Biden is in the lead, the benefited businesses would be green energy, healthcare services, and infrastructure industries.
President Biden, who has been trailing Trump in every approval rating survey since last October, tied with Donald Trump after “Super Tuesday” on the 4th. In a poll conducted on the 4th and 5th by Emerson College with 1,350 voters, both candidates recorded a 45% approval rating.
In response to the clear final candidates, Choi Bo-won, a researcher at Korea Investment & Securities, said, “The easing of uncertainties about the primary elections to be held until June is positive,” and added, “Since the outlines of the final candidates are emerging faster than usual, the timing of the policy concretization by the candidates may be brought forward ahead of the party conventions of the two parties to be held this summer.”
The benefited businesses from each candidate within the U.S. are similar to the securities market’s expectations. If the Republican Party and Trump’s approval ratings are high, defense companies are expected to benefit. Researcher Choi advised, “We need to be aware that if Trump’s approval rating is high, diplomatic uncertainty can increase,” and added, “In addition to defense, which benefits from geopolitical risks, we should also pay attention to essential consumer goods companies that are less affected by diplomatic uncertainty.”
Researcher Choi continued, “Green energy companies are typical businesses that will fluctuate significantly depending on Biden’s approval rating,” and added, “Within healthcare, as the impact of Obamacare is reflected, we should also pay attention to the healthcare policy beneficiary businesses.”
However, there are opinions that it is difficult to determine the beneficiary stocks of each candidate by comparing them to the previous elections. Trump has previously stated that he will “significantly increase defense cost sharing with Korea and Japan,” which could negatively affect the stock prices of domestic defense companies.
Yet, Jo Yeon-ju, a researcher at H Investment & Securities, said, “Despite this, Trump’s remarks could lead to increased interest in K-defense,” and added, “If Trump is re-elected and defense spending increases worldwide, interest in K-defense could increase even more.”
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