Biden-Trump Rematch: Will Mexico Emerge as a Key Player?

In the upcoming November US presidential election, the issue of illegal immigration is emerging as a central point of contention. As a result, analysis suggests that Mexico, situated along the southern border of the United States, could become a pivotal variable influencing the outcome.

The New York Times (NYT) reported on the 26th (local time) with the headline “Who Will Determine the Outcome of the US Election? It’s the Mexican President.” This report highlights the discord between the Biden administration and the Mexican government.

According to the report, while the Biden administration publicly portrays its diplomacy with Mexico as successful, some high-ranking officials view Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador as an unpredictable partner. These officials perceive President Obrador as inadequately controlling his country’s borders to prevent illegal immigrants from South American regions seeking entry into the United States via Mexico. While former President Trump pressured President Obrador with tariff policies to enforce control over illegal immigration, President Biden has focused on avoiding conflict and seeking cooperation through alternative means.

Mexico maintains that the number of incoming immigrants has reached a manageable limit. They advocate for increased support from the United States in developing South America to address the issue of immigrants heading toward the U.S. Additionally, Mexican authorities hold the view that the United States’ immigration policy itself is problematic. Enrique Lucero, the immigration director of Tijuana, expressed that the immigration crisis is “entirely the responsibility of the U.S., not ours.”

While the Mexican government is making some efforts to enhance immigration control in response to U.S. demands, the policy effects are still considered minimal. The Mexican government has started installing hundreds of immigration checkpoints since 2022 and reinforced security on train routes used by immigrants heading towards the U.S.-Mexico border. However, it is explained that immigrants riding trucks can continue moving due to bribes paid to officials at the checkpoints.

Furthermore, the U.S. desires Mexico to increase deportations of illegal immigrants, but there is also the issue of the high cost of providing flights for their return. There are significant limitations in deporting large numbers of people at once due to the Supreme Court ruling that allows immigrants to be detained for only 36 hours. The NYT assessed that “immigration is a major issue for U.S. voters, providing Mexico with potential influence over the direction of the vote,” and “as the immigration issue takes center stage in this presidential election campaign, Mexico has emerged as a key player.”