Our military authorities have assessed North Korea’s ballistic missile launch on July 26, 2024, as a failure. However, North Korean state media misrepresented this assessment, claiming the launch was a successful test aimed at developing multiple warhead capabilities. According to our military, the missile in question appears to be a solid-fuel hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM). It is anticipated that North Korea will require significant time to deploy this missile as it remains in the testing phase.
During the North Korea-Russia summit at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in the Amur region of Russia on September 12, 2023, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un showed particular interest in and desire for hypersonic missile technology. This interest aligns with North Korea’s national defense goals outlined at the 8th Party Congress in January 2021, which identified hypersonic missiles as a key priority. As three years have passed, there is keen interest in determining the current state of North Korea’s hypersonic missile capabilities.
North Korea conducted test launches on January 5 and 11, 2022. In the January 5 test, North Korea claimed it achieved a successful strike on a target 700 kilometers (435 miles) away by maneuvering 120 kilometers (75 miles) from the initial launch azimuth to the target azimuth, suggesting the use of advanced lateral maneuvering technology. Following the January 11 launch, North Korea reported that the hypersonic gliding reentry warhead separated from the missile and executed a significant maneuver over 240 kilometers (149 miles) from the initial trajectory, ultimately hitting a target in waters 1,000 kilometers (621 miles) away.
Military experts believe that North Korea’s claimed success with its hypersonic missile is still in the early stages of development. Only Russia, China, and the U.S. have successfully developed and deployed hypersonic missiles.
Hypersonic missiles are unique in their flight patterns. After launching like a ballistic missile, they travel within the atmosphere at speeds exceeding Mach 5 and exhibit highly variable trajectories, making them difficult to track and intercept with existing missile defense systems. Their ability to alter altitude and direction unpredictably adds to the challenge. The only current method for countering such missiles is a multi-stage missile defense (MD) network that anticipates their flight paths. In March 2018, then commander of U.S. Strategic Command, Gen. John Hyten, testified before Congress that “there is no means to defend against hypersonic weapons.”
The development of hypersonic missiles has spurred additional countries, such as Germany, France, Japan, and India, to enter the race alongside established powers like the U.S., Russia, and China. These missiles are considered “game changers” that could reshape future battlefield dynamics.
Hypersonic missiles are defined as those traveling at speeds greater than Mach 5 (approximately 3,800 mph or 6,100 km/h). They combine the best features of both ballistic and cruise missiles. There are two main types: Hypersonic Glide Vehicles (HGVs) and Hypersonic Cruise Missiles (HCMs). For context, Mach 1 is equivalent to about 767 mph (1,235 km/h), so a missile traveling at Mach 5 could cover the distance from Seoul to Pyongyang in just over a minute.
Recently, the significance of hypersonic missiles has gained increased attention, prompting the U.S. Air Force to resume and advance its hypersonic missile development. The Air Force, which had previously halted its efforts on Mach 20 hypersonic missiles, is now actively testing and deploying these advanced weapons. Recent images released by the Air Force show soldiers receiving briefings on a missile mounted under the wing of a B-52H bomber. This session was described as “Hypersonic Weapon Familiarization Training.” The training involved units from the 23rd Bomb Squadron, responsible for bomber operations, and the 49th Test and Evaluation Battalion, which focuses on evaluating new weapons systems nearing deployment.
Both units are stationed at Andersen Air Force Base in Guam. This marks the first deployment of hypersonic weapons at Guam, a key U.S. forward base in the Western Pacific. According to a press release from the unit, the training provided participants with professional insights into hypersonic weapons, including operational and logistical considerations. The bomber crews concentrated on the fundamentals of hypersonic weapons and engaged in detailed tactical discussions.
In December 2022, the U.S. Air Force announced that the B-52H bomber had successfully launched the AGM-183A Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) off the southern coast of California. This test represented the first full deployment of a missile capable of operational use. The Air Force reported that the missile achieved hypersonic speeds exceeding Mach 5, flew as intended, and detonated successfully at its target, hitting all designated objectives.
Speed of Air-Launched Rapid Response Weapon ‘Mach 20’
The identity of the missile attached under the wing of the B-52 bomber revealed by the U.S. Air Force is AGM-183A. This missile, commonly known as “Arrow,” was a weapons system that was forgotten due to declared development suspension and project disposal due to repeated launch test failures, even though it had received an official name. However, looking at the photos released by the U.S. Air Force, the missile is surprisingly not a prototype but an actual warhead-equipped missile, that is, a missile that can be used in actual combat. The missile in the photo had a yellow band drawn, indicating it was a live round, not for testing or training. The production serial number “AR-AUR-005” was also clearly engraved.
The Arrow can be launched from an F-15 fighter jet and fly up to 1600 km (994 miles). Its speed reaches an astonishing Mach 20. The hypersonic weapons that Russia boasts, Kinzhal and Zircon, and China’s DF-17 are below Mach 10, so it’s an incredible speed. This makes development difficult, but once completed, it is a definite fact that it will become a “game changer” that changes the landscape of the war. Hypersonic missiles with a maximum speed of Mach 5 or more can strike anywhere in the world within 1-2 hours. Because it flies on an unpredictable path by changing the direction of progress within the atmosphere, it is virtually impossible to intercept with the current missile defense system that intercepts by tracking the parabolic trajectory of the ballistic missile. Thanks to this power, it is evaluated as the most effective weapon to suppress China and North Korea in the event of a high-intensity military provocation in Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula in the Western Pacific region.
The airspace near Jeju is about 700 kilometers (approximately 435 miles) from Pyongyang. This distance exceeds the detection capabilities of North Korea’s early warning P-14 radar. If B-52H strategic bombers were to launch Arrow missiles, North Korea might detect some unusual tracks on its radar. However, due to the radar’s limited data processing speed, it could not accurately identify the nature or trajectory of the missiles, nor could it pinpoint the target facilities.
An Arrow missile, capable of reaching speeds up to Mach 20, could cover the distance from just south of Jeju to Kim Jong Un’s residence in Pyongyang in under 2 minutes. Even if North Korea managed to detect the incoming missile and issue an evacuation order to Kim’s residence, it would be tough for him to evacuate in time. The residence would likely be destroyed by the hypersonic missile, traveling at speeds 30-40% of that of a meteorite, with no chance of survival.
The Arrow missile also poses a significant threat to China, mainly because of its focus on Taiwan. If a B-52H launched an Arrow missile from South Korea’s southwestern waters, it would reach Beijing in under 2 minutes and 30 seconds, which is the missile’s maximum range. Given the time needed for air defense systems to detect and report the threat to command centers, it would be very challenging for the Chinese leadership to avoid an Arrow missile strike.
Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM) Under Development
The U.S. Air Force is developing a new hypersonic weapon, the Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile (HACM). This missile will travel at speeds of Mach 7, which is slower than some other hypersonic missiles. In December 2022, the Air Force awarded Raytheon Technologies a $985 million contract to develop the HACM. For the 2024 fiscal year, the Air Force has requested $380 million for continued research and development of the HACM.
The HACM targets critical infrastructure within an adversary’s advanced air defense network, such as those in China. While both the HACM and the Air-launched Rapid Response Weapon (ARRW) use boosters, the HACM’s booster is intended to reach the speed necessary for the scramjet engine to function rather than to gain altitude. Unlike the ARRW, which uses the speed from its descent through the atmosphere to glide, the HACM accelerates horizontally before igniting its engine to head toward its target.
Although primarily a U.S. Air Force initiative, Australia also develops the HACM. In 2020, the U.S. Air Force and Australia signed a bilateral SCIFIRE (Southern Cross Integrated Flight Research Experiment) to work together on this hypersonic cruise missile. The Air Force plans to conduct test flights for the HACM in Australia.
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