North Korea’s ‘Vietnam Moment’: Troops in Russia May Trigger Conflict on Korean Peninsula

North Korea’s decision to deploy troops to support Russia’s war effort, following its earlier supply of ammunition and missiles, has raised significant international concern. Experts speculate that North Korea expects compensation in the form of advanced technology transfers, which could include crucial capabilities such as re-entry technology for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), construction techniques for strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs), military satellite imaging and communication technologies, and liquid propellant space launch vehicle technologies.

Reports from foreign media suggest that North Korea has dispatched key missile technicians from the “Red Flag Hero Company,” a unit under the Missile General Bureau, to the Ukrainian front. This signals a deepening military and technological cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow. In return for its involvement, North Korea is likely to demand technology transfers that could significantly enhance its missile and nuclear programs. This could include technology for ICBM re-entry capabilities, nuclear submarine construction, and advanced air defense systems, all of which would bolster North Korea’s military posture.

According to a press release from South Korea’s National Intelligence Service (NIS) last week, North Korea initially sent 1,500 troops from the 11th Corps, a special operations unit called the “Storm Corps.” Intelligence agencies anticipate that additional troop movements from four brigades under the Corps could raise the number to as many as 12,000 troops. These troops are expected to be deployed soon in Russia’s southwestern Kursk region, a combat zone.

The significant point is that North Korea’s dispatch of a large ground force, following its weapons support based on the comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with Russia, marks a turning point in global security, including on the Korean Peninsula. Analysts suggest that the likelihood of war on the Korean Peninsula has reached its highest level since the Korean War. What is the true intention behind North Korea’s Vietnam-style deployment?

The Vietnam Comparison: A Strategic Play

Experts argue the motives and potential benefits for Pyongyang are notably different. Analysts suggest that North Korea’s decision to send soldiers to support Russia’s war effort serves three key strategic purposes: to solidify its alliance with Moscow and use the opportunity to modernize its military capabilities. The North Korean military, which has not experienced combat since the Korean War in the 1950s, lags significantly behind the advanced military forces of South Korea and the United States. By participating in combat alongside Russian forces, North Korea could gain critical real-world combat experience and the chance to upgrade its outdated weapons systems.

Furthermore, just as the Vietnam deployment strengthened the South Korea-U.S. alliance, the North Korea-Russia alliance could have long-term negative impacts on the Korean Peninsula’s situation if reinforced by this deployment.

The New York Times recently noted that the Ukraine war offers North Korea a valuable opportunity to test its military’s readiness for modern warfare and the effectiveness of its new weapons systems. As a result, North Korea is expected to learn critical lessons that could strengthen its military posture.

Of course, during the Vietnam War, South Korean soldiers received an average of $500 per person, and Russian soldiers deployed to Ukraine received about $3,000 to $5,000 per person. It could significantly benefit North Korea’s economy if North Korean soldiers receive similar compensation.

North Korea Views the Ukraine War as Military Training

Another underlying motive is to create tension on the Korean Peninsula to maintain the North Korean regime and control internal dissent. Recently, dissatisfaction among North Korean residents with the leadership has been growing, causing significant anxiety for the leader Kim Jong Un. The regime needs a pretext to divert internal discontent to other issues.

Some residents cast protest votes in last year’s local elections, signaling discontent. In response, authorities circulated videos that purported to show North Koreans plotting revolutionary acts against the regime. Earlier this year, North Korean workers sent to China even staged riots over their poor working conditions. The government has implemented new restrictive laws to counter these challenges, including the Reactionary Ideology and Culture Rejection Act, the Youth Education Guarantee Act, and the Pyongyang Cultural Language Protection Act. These laws aim to suppress the public’s growing interest in South Korean culture and prevent further defections among diplomats abroad.

Moreover, the regime has been unable to distribute gifts to the people during significant occasions like the September 9th Foundation Day, Chuseok (Korean Thanksgiving), and the October 10th Party Foundation Day. The regime is also unable to prevent the annual flood disasters that claim many lives, causing significant instability within the system.

Seeking a Long-Term Security Guarantee from Russia

The most critical objective for North Korea is to secure a security guarantee from Russia by deploying troops despite the short-term weakening of its war capabilities. This guarantee could strengthen North Korea’s deterrence against U.S. and South Korean military threats in the long term.

In June, North Korea and Russia signed a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement establishing a legal basis for their alliance. By deploying troops to Russia, North Korea is showcasing itself as Russia’s only “ally,” repaying its debt to the former Soviet Union from the Korean War. In return, North Korea would secure Russia’s intervention in the event of a war on the Korean Peninsula.

The agreement signed between North Korea and Russia includes a clause on automatic military intervention. It states that if either party is attacked and goes to war by an individual or multiple countries, the other party will provide military and other support with all available means, according to the UN Charter Article 51 and the laws of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea and the Russian Federation.

Escalating Tensions on the Korean Peninsula

Some analysts argue that Russia’s recent moves, rather than signaling automatic intervention in a Korean Peninsula conflict, are more about leveraging North Korea’s military support to meet Russia’s immediate needs in Ukraine. While North Korea is not directly involved in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Ukraine’s August attack on Russia’s Kursk territory could justify North Korea invoking its mutual defense treaty with Russia.

The South Korean government has focused on the treaty’s automatic intervention clause, conditional on “the laws of the Republic (North Korea) and Russia.” This stipulation suggests that Russia might find a legal loophole to avoid becoming involved in a conflict on the Korean Peninsula, mainly to evade international backlash and sanctions.

Yet, even before the treaty entirely takes effect, North Korean troops have already entered the fray under the guise of protecting Russian territory, indicating that the supposed “control mechanism” may not hold up. As a result, experts warn that Russian intervention in a Korean Peninsula conflict could now be seen as a near certainty, raising the stakes for regional security.