On November 5, alongside the U.S. presidential election, ten states will hold referendums asking residents whether abortion rights should be guaranteed in their state constitutions. These referendums are also scheduled in the key battleground states of Arizona and Nevada in the West. According to Nikkei on Tuesday, both the Democratic and Republican parties are watching closely as increased voter turnout from those interested in abortion rights could affect election results.
Since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned federal abortion rights in 2022, seven states have held abortion-related referendums, each resulting in a victory for abortion rights advocates. Pro-choice advocates are expected to maintain a strong position in these upcoming referendums.
According to a September poll conducted by The New York Times, 58% of voters in Arizona said they would support amending the state constitution to protect abortion rights. An August poll by Fox News similarly showed that 75% of Nevada residents support amending their state constitution to safeguard abortion rights.
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris has prominently featured abortion rights in her campaign, urging support for these referendums. Democrats hope these ballot measures will motivate their pro-choice supporters to head to the polls.
However, Professor Shaun Bowler of the University of California, Riverside, predicted that some voters might support abortion rights in the referendum but still vote for former President Donald Trump in the presidential election. Professor Bowler also suggested that anti-abortion activists may mobilize to oppose these referendums. Trump asserts that abortion regulations should be determined at the state level, either through referendums or state legislatures.
A senior official in Trump’s campaign told The Washington Post that these abortion referendums might benefit the Republican Party. The argument is that if many voters separate the referendum from the presidential election, increased turnout might lead to more Trump votes. Indeed, according to the research firm Noble Predictive Insights, a significant number of Trump supporters in Arizona and Nevada support abortion rights or amending state constitutions to uphold abortion rights.
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