North Korea fired a ballistic missile immediately after Vladimir Putin’s Russian presidential election victory. Various interpretations have been made about North Korea’s resumption of provocation after over a month of silence, including the period of Seoul and Washington’s annual “Freedom Shield (FS)” drills.
According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei), on the 18th, the Japan Ministry of Defense announced that North Korea fired three ballistic missiles northeast between 7 and 8 a.m. that day, all of which fell outside the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) near the east coast of the Korean Peninsula.
Experts analyze that North Korea refrained from provocations during significant political events such as the Chinese National People’s Congress and the Russian presidential election but resumed such actions afterward. Furthermore, they analyze that the DPRK is aiming to strengthen its ties with China by further strengthening its close relationship with Russia.
According to a comprehensive report by Voice of America (VOA) and American magazine of international relations and U.S. foreign policy Foreign Affairs, North Korea has been shifting its focus toward Russia within the North Korea-China-Russia tripartite alliance since the latter half of last year. VOA pointed out that China’s dilemma of watching this has situation has grown.
China has exerted considerable influence on North Korea. While opposing North Korea’s sanctions by the UN Security Council, it has continued to exchange resources such as oil and gas, naturally forming a dependent relationship.
However, with the expansion of the North Korea-China-Russia tripartite relationship, North Korea appears to be engaging in a careful diplomatic strategy.
Foreign Affairs, the U.S. leading magazine for in-depth analysis and debate of foreign policy, geopolitics, and international affairs, pointed out that “North Korea, by enhancing ties with Russia, aims to strengthen its position in relations with China.”
Russia is in the middle of a war and blocked by various international sanctions. Amidst the tense war situation, Russia reportedly received ammunition from North Korea. In return, Russia is expected to transfer various launch technologies, including its space technology, to the North Korean reconnaissance satellite.
Highlighting the close ties, Putin even personally gifted a Russian luxury limousine, Aurus, to Chairman Kim Jong-un.
According to Russian TASS and RIA Novosti, “The traditional friendship and bilateral ties between North Korea and Russia have reached an unprecedentedly high level, “Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said on the 14th at a gala reception marking the 75th anniversary of the signing of the first intergovernmental agreement on economic and cultural cooperation between DPRK and Russia.
Chinese authorities are expressing concern about North Korea gradually drift away from China’s sphere of influence. VOA explained, “If the arms trade between Chairman Kim Jong-un of North Korea and President Putin continues, it could destabilize the Korean Peninsula,” and “China is worried about this.”
Hong Min, a Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, said through Yonhap News, “Considering the Chinese National People’s Congress and the Russian presidential election, it seems that they refrained from provoking neighboring countries and fired ballistic missiles as soon as the Russian presidential election results came out,” adding, “North Korea is tactically leveraging the recent external environment in its diplomatic code.”
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