With the U.S. presidential election approaching on November 5, the Republican Party is not only aiming for victory in the election but also to take control of Congress. Tesla (TSLA) has emerged as a key beneficiary among the major tech stocks.
According to KB Securities, polls in seven battleground states predict that Vice President Kamala Harris will secure the 270 electoral votes needed to win. However, past elections involving former President Donald Trump have shown that polling can be deceptive. In the last two elections, the margins between the Republican and Democratic candidates in these seven battleground states—Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona—averaged about three percentage points. Before the 2016 election, polls showed Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton ahead by 1.2 percentage points in these states, but Trump ultimately surpassed Clinton by 1.6 percentage points.
Kim Il Hyuk, a researcher at KB Securities, explained, “Polling organizations are employing various methods to uncover hidden votes. While this effort could enhance polling accuracy, it’s challenging to guarantee victory for Harris under the current circumstances.”
Despite California being a stronghold for Harris, Trump made a bold strategic choice to campaign there just three weeks before his election. While some may argue that he should focus on battleground states, Trump’s California visit served multiple purposes: raising campaign funds in affluent California but also supporting House candidates.
Kim speculated, “If the Republicans win the presidency and control Congress, they could implement not only their flagship policy of tariffs but also tax cuts and deregulations to offset the negative impacts of those tariffs.”
However, a Republican victory could also set back policies supporting the green energy industry, a sector heavily backed by President Joe Biden. Kim pointed out that despite Tesla’s status as a leader in the electric vehicle market, it hasn’t always benefited from the Biden administration’s support, which has focused more on traditional automakers. This situation could lead Tesla CEO Elon Musk to align with Trump if his policies prove more favorable for the company.
If Trump eliminates policies supporting the green industry after taking office, traditional automakers could struggle without sufficient technological capabilities, potentially creating a window of opportunities for Tesla. “Traditional automakers might claim they will protect themselves with tariffs,” Kim added, “but if Trump acknowledges Tesla’s contributions in actively supporting him, the company could avoid tariff-related damages.”
Beyond politics, Tesla’s innovation in AI and robotics, particularly its autonomous driving technology and the development of the Optimus robot, position the company as a stand-out among major tech companies. In the real-world application of AI, Tesla is expected to pave the way for these cutting-edge areas.
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