North Korea’s Nuclear Shadow Fuels South Korea’s Atomic Ambitions – Part 3

Trump, High Possibility of Recognizing Korea’s Right to Develop Nuclear Weapons

In fact, in the current global situation where nuclear threats are escalating, China and North Korea are surrounding, and the development of independent nuclear weapons would be the most efficient method of self-defense. Experts judge that if South Korea’s independent nuclear comes into existence, South Korea can ensure 100% national security on its own while reducing its dependence on the U.S. nuclear umbrella.

In particular, the re-election of Donald Trump in this year’s U.S. election could be good news. Unlike the vast majority of U.S. politicians, he is classified as someone who could recognize South Korea’s right to develop nuclear weapons. For instance, it’s well known that Trump tends to see most of America’s allies, not just South Korea, as freeloaders. From Trump’s perspective, he is likely to demand a significant increase in defense cost-sharing due to the stationing of U.S. forces in Korea. If this strategy gets refused, he could claim withdrawing U.S. forces in Korea, which could be an opportunity for us. It could give us a reason for the South Korean military’s independent nuclear artillery, and the U.S. could judge that it is an outstanding contribution to the alliance for an ally to develop nuclear weapons.

Therefore, if South Korea develops nuclear weapons within the four-year term of Trump’s re-election, it’s highly likely that the Trump administration will not strongly oppose this decision and will not impose any sanctions on South Korea that could cause an economic crisis considering the background.

The recent release of a public opinion poll showing that the majority of our citizens positively evaluate the theory of South Korea’s independent nuclear armament in the face of escalating North Korean nuclear threats is adding momentum to the argument that there is a need to expedite independent nuclear weaponry.

According to a Public Opinion Survey on Perception of North Korean Nuclear Crisis and Security Situation, conducted by the Chosun Ilbo and Gallup Korea from December 15 last year to January 10 this year, 1,043 adults aged 18 and over, 51.4% said they tend to think that South Korea needs independent nuclear development, and 21.4% said they very much tend to think so. A total of 72.8% said they believe nuclear firearms are necessary. The pro-nuclear sentiment was not divided by political inclination and received high support from the lower-income bracket.

The most effective response to the North Korean nuclear threat was to strengthen South Korea’s atomic potential (20.6%), followed by U.S. nuclear sharing similar to NATO (20.4%), maintaining the South Korean-style three-axis system (18.7%), and redeployment of tactical nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula (16.2%).

91.1% of Respondents Believe North Korea’s Denuclearization Is Impossible

According to a recent survey, most respondents believe that denuclearization of North Korea is not feasible. Specifically, when asked whether North Korea’s denuclearization is possible in light of its codification of nuclear preemptive strikes, 49.7% responded that it is not possible, and 41.4% stated it is entirely impossible. This results in 91.1% expressing a pessimistic view, a substantial increase from last year’s 77.6%.

This growing skepticism coincides with an increased consensus in South Korea on the need for nuclear armament due to the perceived ineffectiveness of North Korea’s denuclearization. Despite strengthened cooperation among South Korea, the United States, and Japan, many believe that these efforts are insufficient to mitigate the nuclear threat from North Korea, suggesting a need for South Korea to reassess its stance on independent atomic armament.

Park In Guk, the former South Korean Ambassador to the United Nations and current director at the Choi Jong Hyun Institute of International Affairs, analyzed the survey results, indicating a crucial demand for strengthened extended deterrence on the Korean Peninsula with active involvement from South Korea.

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