In a recent analysis, William Pesek, an award-winning Tokyo-based journalist, explored the potential repercussions of former President Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming U.S. presidential election for South Korea.
During a breakfast seminar hosted by the World Economic Research Institute, William Pesek stated that the upcoming presidential election favors Vice President Kamala Harris. However, he mentioned that it is still a “tight race” between Harris and Trump.
Pesek assessed that if Harris wins this election, the U.S. will strengthen the economic and foreign policies of the Biden administration, moving towards a path of “stability and solidarity.” However, if Trump wins, it could trigger a “massive trade war,” potentially devastating the global economy.
Pesek predicted that a Trump administration would likely reignite trade conflicts, devalue the U.S. dollar, and compromise the independence of the Federal Reserve. He cautioned, “Such actions would significantly shock both the U.S. and the global economy.”
He also highlighted the potential for expanded trade hostilities, including the imposition of 60% tariffs on China, which would exacerbate trade tensions. This scenario would particularly damage trade-dependent Asian countries, including South Korea.
On the issue of North Korea, Pesek suggested that a Trump presidency would likely see a revival of his relationship with Kim Jong Un, with the possibility of hosting Kim at a White House state dinner.
Pesek emphasized that the most critical issue is “political instability.” He explained, “If Trump loses, he is unlikely to accept the results, leading to the current political instability in the U.S.” He warned that this uncertainty could heighten economic risks not just in the U.S. but throughout Asia.
He further stressed the importance of structural reforms and innovations in South Korea while preparing for external uncertainties, such as the election slowing China’s economic growth.
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