U.S. President Joe Biden is set to warn against China’s coercive actions in the South China Sea. He plans to clarify that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Second Thomas Shoal in the Spratly Islands, where the Philippines and China are in a territorial dispute. This area rapidly emerges as a potential flashpoint between the U.S. and China, following Taiwan.
On the 7th, the Financial Times (FT) quoted a senior U.S. official saying that President Biden will express serious concerns about the situation around the Second Thomas Shoal during the first trilateral summit between the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines in Washington D.C. on the 11th (local time). The official said, “President Biden will emphasize that the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty applies to the Sierra Madre, which is anchored at the Second Thomas Shoal,” and “These concerns were conveyed during a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week.”
The Second Thomas Shoal is amid a fierce territorial dispute in the South China Sea’s Spratly Islands. In the 1990s, China began constructing military facilities on the reefs in the area, prompting the Philippines in 1999 to intentionally ground the decrepit warship Sierra Madre on the Second Thomas Shoal to assert its sovereignty. Since then, the Philippines has stationed marines on the grounded ship and resupplied it, despite aggressive actions by China, including firing water cannons at Philippine supply ships. Biden’s mention of the Mutual Defense Treaty applying to the Sierra Madre suggests that the U.S. might directly intervene in the dispute. A U.S. official warned, “China is underestimating the possibility of escalation,” and “China needs to reassess its tactics or face serious consequences.”
Warnings are already being exchanged between the military leadership of the two countries. John Aquilino, commander of the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, is known to have conveyed the U.S. position to China’s former ambassador to the U.S., Cui Tiankai. Bonnie Glaser, an expert on cross-strait relations at the German Marshall Fund (GMF), pointed out, “The most dangerous area for direct military confrontation between the U.S. and China currently is the Second Thomas Shoal. If China directly attacks Philippine ships or forces, the U.S. will have no choice but to respond militarily.”
Amid rising military tensions in the South China Sea, the U.S., Japan, Australia, and the Philippines conducted their first joint naval and air force training in the region the day before. This joint exercise within the Philippine EEZ near the Second Thomas Shoal is symbolic as it’s the first time the four countries have conducted training with a potential military conflict with China in mind. Participating in the training were the U.S. Navy’s latest Littoral Combat Ship (LCS), USS Mobile, Australia’s HMAS Warramunga, Japan’s Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer JS Akebono, and two Philippine ships, including BRP Ramon Alcaraz.
The defense ministers of the four countries hinted that future exercises will continue following this joint exercise. The heads of state of the U.S., Japan, and the Philippines are scheduled to discuss the regularity of joint exercises in the South China Sea and plans for a joint maritime defense system at a summit on the 11th. China opposes this and conducts ‘counter-fire’ exercises in the South China Sea.
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